World Cup Tourism Off to a Slow Start in the U.S., Canada and Mexico

Julie Rahaman nearly ditched her plans to see the World Cup.

The 34-year-old accountant from Alberta had purchased tickets in October for a game in Vancouver, British Columbia, on June 26 — Belgium versus New Zealand. But when she went to book a hotel, she was priced out: Rooms were as much as 1,400 Canadian dollars, or about $1,000, per night.

“It gets to a point where it just feels ridiculous,” said Ms. Rahaman, who briefly considered bunking in a college dorm. Instead, she gave up in April and listed the four tickets for sale.

Then, before the tickets sold, hotel prices started dropping. In May, she booked a room at a Best Western for about $285. Eventually she canceled that reservation and booked a room for a similar rate at a five-star Fairmont hotel.

Ms. Rahaman’s good fortune — plummeting hotel prices — may hint at a major setback for the tournament’s host cities. FIFA anticipated more than six million fans this summer, estimating that the tournament, with 104 games spread across 16 cities in three countries, could generate a global economic impact of $80 billion. Gianni Infantino, the FIFA president, said last year that the world would “stand still” for the tournament, which he likened to 104 Super Bowls in a single month.

But in recent months, those expectations have steadily eroded. Now, with the tournament underway, hospitality leaders report a mixed picture, with some saying that the promised windfall has become a more disappointing reality.

Tracking the Numbers

In some host cities, including New York, Toronto and Miami, the number of hotel bookings on match days is lower than the numbers from a year ago, according to CoStar, a real estate analytics company.

Hoping to capitalize on World Cup demand, hotels significantly inflated prices this year, with nightly rates as high as 500 percent above average. But prices across host cities have steadily declined from their peaks, with the largest drops in Vancouver and Monterrey, Mexico, according to the data tracker Lighthouse Intelligence. In Vancouver, for example, rates this summer are comparable to rates from last year, aside for $100 to $200 spikes on match days.

Some travelers, like Ms. Rahaman, have repeatedly canceled and rebooked stays at lower rates to save money. Others, stuck with higher, nonrefundable rates, now feel bitter.

International travel numbers look disappointing, too. FIFA had estimated that 40 percent of World Cup visitors would be international travelers. But flight bookings made before June from the European Union to most host cities during the tournament months of June and July have dropped compared with last year, according to the aviation data firm Cirium. Bookings for flights to Kennedy Airport in New York were down more than 15 percent year over year. For San Francisco International Airport, bookings were down nearly 10 percent.

Jan Freitag, CoStar’s national director of hospitality analytics, said that the tourism outlook was still “calibrating,” adding that, across all host cities, it would still be a better summer for hotels than last year was.

A Rosy Picture, in Places

Kansas City has seen the kind of tourism bump that most host cities expected, with hotels reporting 32 percent growth in bookings compared with this time last year across all six match periods, according to data from Visit Kansas City, a nonprofit economic development organization.

Short-term rentals, which have flooded the market since the city eased permitting fees for the games, have also doubled their revenue projections, the nonprofit said. Kansas City rentals have sold 44 percent more nights around game days than this time last year, according to AirDNA, a market research firm that specializes in short-term rentals.

When Argentina and Algeria kicked off the city’s first match on June 16, metro hotels were either sold out or at 80 to 85 percent occupancy, said Andrea O’Hara, the executive director of the Hotel & Lodging Association of Greater Kansas City.

Ms. O’Hara cited a few factors for Kansas City’s early success. It’s generally an affordable destination compared with other host cities like Los Angeles and New York City, she said, and its location in the middle of the United States gives easier access to games across the country. It’s also convenient for road-trippers from numerous states.

Kansas City also has the luck of the draw on its side, hosting both a quarterfinal match and teams that draw large crowds, namely the Netherlands and Argentina, with its superstar Lionel Messi. Argentina-origin bookings to Kansas City International Airport are up about 2,143 percent compared with last year, according to Visit Kansas City.

Even still, Ms. O’Hara said that the average length of visitors’ stays has been shorter than expected, and that visitation numbers dip significantly between matches.

Gloomy Forecasts for Others

In New York, the sentiment is decidedly gloomier. At the start of the World Cup, the Hotel Association of New York City halved its forecast for hotel revenue growth to $100 million. Vijay Dandapani, the association’s chief executive, called the tournament “hugely disappointing and underwhelming.”

FIFA estimated that the tournament would draw 1.2 million visitors to the New York City area; Mr. Dandapani said the city’s hotel industry would be happy settling for 400,000 visitors, adding that hotels are walking back earlier price increases that had been up to 300 percent higher than the same time last year. Pricing during the tournament is more aligned with a typical June or July, he said.

He cited several reasons for the muted demand, including rising costs, business travelers avoiding the city, the tournament’s location in New Jersey and continued barriers to international travel.

Seattle is also facing disappointing numbers, with bookings below those of last year across flights, short-term rentals and hotels, according to industry data.

FIFA has also canceled up to 70 percent of room blocks for staff and delegates in several host cities, including Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Seattle, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association. While local hotel associations said room releases were typical with events of this scale, they said the number of rooms released by FIFA was surprising.

The room blocks added to “an artificial early demand signal,” according to a report published in May by the A.H.L.A. FIFA did not respond to a request for comment.

The Bigger Picture

Overall, international visitation this year has been weaker than expected, said Aran Ryan, the director of industry studies with Tourism Economics, a global travel data company. The number of total overseas visitors this year through May is nearly 5 percent lower than it was during the same period last year, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. Last year, the United States was the only major nation to register a decline in international tourism.

The A.H.L.A. warned in May that international travelers were underperforming relative to domestic visitors and that visa barriers and geopolitical concerns were “significantly suppressing” international demand.

Hospitality leaders are still hoping for a last-minute surge. Hotels are optimistic that travelers are still finalizing plans for later-stage matches, said Rosanna Maietta, the chief executive of the A.H.L.A. Other industry experts said that travelers are booking later and for shorter stays than predicted.

Many travelers are capitalizing on the lower-than-expected demand. Kenneth Walden, 50, an I.T. professional from Austin, Texas, is taking three trips to see group stage games in Houston. When he booked his refundable rooms in late February, Mr. Walden said prices at Hilton and Marriott were about $600 per night, about double the usual rate. In April, when prices had fallen, he rebooked his rooms and saved about $650.

But others are reeling from the costs. Tom Boyer, 57, a health care consultant from California, booked a nonrefundable Marriott room in early April for his family of four to see two World Cup games in Vancouver. His two young sons, whose closets are stuffed with soccer jerseys from Manchester City to Arsenal, were ecstatic.

Mr. Boyer booked the room after he saw rates drop to about $640 per night, down from about $920. Demand shouldn’t drop much further, he thought.

Early this month, Mr. Boyer said he noticed a “serious erosion” of rates. He called the hotel and Marriott’s corporate office upward of 10 times, seeking to bridge the gap between the new, lower rate and the rate he had booked, Mr. Boyer said. No luck.

“I would advise the soccer overlords to seriously consider what they’re doing to fans with these ticket and hotel pricing practices,” Mr. Boyer said.

“The game is supposed to bring people together. These types of practices don’t.”

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