Are Brisbane destined to emulate super coach Leigh Matthews from two decades ago and achieve a three-peat of flags? Is the Brownlow Medal Nick Daicos’s to lose, or will he experience the heartache of another second place? What about the new AFL top 10 finals system and a “wildcard” weekend of finals – the right ingredients for a better season or more meaningless matches instead of fewer?
Our football experts have their say on these big questions and more in our time capsule of predictions. Scroll down to explore our team-by-team interactive, where our scribes have assessed each club in detail and had a crack at what the ladder will look like after a marathon home-and-away season in round 24. You can also submit your prediction on each club’s finishing position. Chief football writer Jake Niall gives a snapshot look at every team, tipping another Lions premiership but also a “vicious rebound” from Sydney.
Our pundits expect another grim season for West Coast, and more grind for lowly clubs Richmond and North Melbourne? But will there be a “surprise” club in the bottom three – perhaps either Melbourne, Essendon or Port Adelaide? Collingwood and GWS are popular picks as clubs to “slide” in 2026. In the case of the Giants, injuries are expected to bite but, for the Magpies, as one expert puts it: “Father Time is undefeated”.
At the top of the ladder, the Lions are all the rage but their Queensland rivals Gold Coast are attracting plenty of fans. Few are willing to deviate from Brisbane as their premiership tip, but one pundit thinks the star-studded Geelong team will get the job done. Try and select the expert who thinks the GWS will claim second spot ahead of the finals.
Our Real Footy podcast, featuring regulars Niall, Caroline Wilson and Michael Gleeson, returns in 2026, as does our weekly tipping podcast with Peter Ryan and Andrew Wu.
What the experts think
Jimmy Bartel
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
Rising Star: Alex Tauru (St Kilda)
Story of the season: We will see our first televised tribunal hearing.
On the rise: St Kilda
On the slide: GWS. Injuries cruel them.
Headline you won’t see: Meatloaf tribute act to headline grand final entertainment
Fans’ biggest gripe: Grand final start time yearly debate
An AFL final 10 will mean: Dropping four or five games in a row during the season won’t mean as much. The top six is important, the rest get ready for a rush at the end of the year.
Docker Caleb Serong (middle) is Jimmy Bartel’s pick for the Brownlow.Credit: Getty Images
Libby Birch
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. After his outstanding recent Origin performance, surely this is the year. He’s controlling games, not just highlights.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). After suffering an ACL last year, this youngster already looks like a ready-made AFL footballer and is primed to take the Blues’ midfield by storm.
Story of the Season: Brisbane Lions continue to prove the grand final hangovers don’t exist.
On the Rise: St Kilda. Aggressive in the sign-and-trade period last year, and with the right mix of youth and experience, the Saints look ready to finally break their streak of mediocrity.
On the slide: Collingwood. Sorry Pies fans — a dip feels inevitable. The list is ageing, and the bigger question looms: when does the club fully commit to regeneration?
Headline You Won’t See: Turns out Hawthorn didn’t need Zach Merrett anyway – because they win the flag.
Fans’ Biggest Gripe: The removal of the centre bounce – another flashpoint for traditionalists who feel the game is drifting from its roots.
An AFL Final 10 Will Mean: More meaningful games – but a watered-down reward for excellence.
Wayne Campbell
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Errol Gulden. Sydney will rise on the back of a fit and firing Errol.
Rising Star: Zeke Uwland (Gold Coast). Ready-made to play in the AFL and will be in a winning team.
Story of the season: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. We love redemption stories.
On the rise: Richmond’s 2024 No.1 draft pick Sam Lalor. He’s ready to go.
On the slide: The bounce … and not before time.
Headline you won’t see: We miss the bounce!
Fans’ biggest gripe: The stand rule. But it’s actually really good.
An AFL final 10 will mean: The weekend off before the finals will finally have a purpose.
Michael Gleeson
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood).
Rising Star: Willem Duursma (West Coast).
Story of the season: Will Zach Merrett try to leave the Bombers again.
On the rise: Hawthorn co-captain James Sicily, fit again after he played injured last year.
On the slide: GWS. Too many injuries.
Headline you won’t see: I’ll get a haircut and stay off social media: Bailey Smith
Fans’ biggest gripe: Victorian clubs complaining the AFL has given too many free leg-ups to Queensland.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Absolutely nothing to who wins the flag.
Will Nick Daicos be smiling brightly on Brownlow night?Credit: AFL Photos
Emma Kearney
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. Has been super consistent over the last couple of seasons and a glimpse from the State of Origin game suggests he’s going to take his game to another level at Collingwood.
Rising Star: Zeke Uwland. The classy Queenslander will provide some outside dash for Gold Coast. He’ll be able to play a simple role, while Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Christian Petracca get more of the attention.
Story of the season: Zak Butters trade rumours and the speculation over his contract throughout the 2026 campaign. Will he return home to Victoria?
On the rise: Western Bulldogs. They arguably have one of the best midfields in the competition. If they can improve their defensive performance, they can challenge deep into finals.
On the slide: GWS. Over the past few seasons they’ve had some really disappointing finals series. At their best, they are capable of beating anyone, but they lack depth in their squad and are starting the year with key players out through injury.
Headline you won’t see: Trade regrets. With Christian Pretracca, Clayton Oliver and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan all finding new homes last year, expect them to have a huge impact for their new clubs. A fresh start is sometimes all a player needs.
Fans’ biggest gripe: Inconsistency with the new ducking/ prior opportunity rule. It’s already a frustration among fans when small forwards get rewarded free kicks for the shrug of the shoulder, but it can be a hard decision to adjudicate at times which will leave fans angry.
An AFL final 10 will mean: A more exciting finish to the season, as more teams fight it out for a finals spot.
Gold Coast youngster Zeke Uwland.Credit: Justin McManus
Sam McClure
Premier: Sydney Swans
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. The lack of respect this man has received for football’s highest honour has gone on long enough. This is the year he wins it.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). If he’s half as good as Carlton think he is, this young man is going to make a difference in his first season. Helped by the fact that he’ll play every game if he’s fit.
Story of the season: Tensions inside AFL House reach boiling point as internal factions continue to haunt Andrew Dillon’s reign as chief executive.
On the rise: Sydney. Charlie Curnow is exactly what Dean Cox’s side need. If Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden stay fit, it’s hard to see them missing the top four.
On the slide: Melbourne. The jury is still out on their new coach and football boss. That combined with losing Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca means Demons fans may have to be patient for a season or two. Could be a tough season.
Headline you won’t see: Carlton rejuvenated after a complete gameplan overhaul
Fans’ biggest gripe: Football is getting less accessible to the everyday fan.
An AFL final 10 will mean: A short-term sugar hit dressed up as innovation. More teams alive for longer, fewer games that truly matter and a competition that confuses tension with volume.
Marc McGowan
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood). This is a boring prediction, but why would you guess anyone else after the superstar Pie finished runner-up the last two seasons?
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). The second-year Blue missed his debut season because of an ACL rupture, but he is brilliant at stoppages and already impressing in the pre-season.
Story of the season: Clubs increasingly target free agent recruits with monstrous offers as compromised drafts, which Tasmania will only exacerbate, make it harder to unearth top-tier talent.
On the rise: Sydney. They underachieved in Dean Cox’s first season, but boast some of the league’s best players, added Charlie Curnow, and won six of their final eight games last year, including beating eventual premiers, the Brisbane Lions.
On the slide: Port Adelaide. There could be rough times ahead in the post-Ken Hinkley era. There are still some top-liners at Alberton, but a lack of depth may be a problem.
Headline you won’t see: Clubs welcome Tasmania sniffing around their stars and young guns
Fans’ biggest gripe: Paying an exorbitant, and continually increasing, monthly subscription for Kayo Sports.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Less importance on performing across the entire season, and a mediocre team that wins a one-off elimination game could feature in the finals.
Jake Niall
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Noah Anderson (Gold Coast).
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton).
Story of the season: Lachie Neale’s choices.
On the rise: Sydney, St Kilda.
On the slide: Collingwood.
Headline you won’t see: Hawks land Merrett after Mitchell’s apology to Dons
Fans’ biggest gripe: Umpiring and technology (too much or not enough).
An AFL final 10 will mean: Two more sell-outs. Two fewer flag chances in September.
Jon Pierik
Premier: Geelong
Brownlow: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda). More time in the midfield and forward of centre should have this star playmaker vaulting from his ninth-spot placing of 2025.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton). Having missed his entire rookie year through injury, this silky onballer is ready to rebound. He knows how to find the ball – and use it.
Story of the season: The fates of Michael Voss and Alastair Clarkson. Will Voss see out the season should the Blues struggle? Plus the desperate need for the Kangaroos to finally improve in Clarkson’s fourth season.
On the rise: Sydney. Injuries hurt in Dean Cox’s first year in charge, but the addition of Charlie Curnow has the Swans eyeing a top-four berth.
On the slide: GWS. There’s worries about the Giants. Injuries, age and wasted opportunities may finally catch up, but coach Adam Kingsley is one of the best in the business. The ageing Magpies are also a close watch.
Headline you won’t see: Collingwood embrace youth policy
Fans’ biggest gripe: No, not another mid-season rule tinkering.
An AFL final 10 will mean: More interest in the final six weeks of the season, but more questions whether a team potentially with a losing record should feature in the finals.
Much is expected of St Kilda star Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.Credit: AFL Photos
Peter Ryan
Premier: Fremantle
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood). It’s hard to go past him on any basis other than the fact he keeps finding one more favoured in front of him.
Rising Star: Zeke Uwland (Gold Coast) The chance to slot into a team on the rise alongside his brother after training with the squad as part of the Suns’ academy makes him favourite.
Story of the season: St Kilda rise, or fall. Either way, it will be a ride. And, at times, it will get nasty.
On the rise: Gold Coast. If they do the work, their rise will continue at pace with Christian Petracca a huge asset and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan worth a punt.
On the slide: Adelaide. It’s a harsh call but the loss of Mark Keane and Dan Curtin hurts and a tougher fixture will test them in 2026.
Headline you won’t see: Emotional scenes as Richard Goyder farewelled
Fans’ biggest gripe: The same as it has been for 100 years – umpiring.
An AFL final 10 will mean: An extra two games with a finals-like atmosphere that gives those finishing top four an added advantage. The only gripe will be if the pre-finals bye helps or hinders those facing wildcard winners in elimination finals.
Scott Spits
Premier: Brisbane Lions
Brownlow: Nick Daicos. It’s hard to think a player could offer a better Brownlow formline over three years than what the (still young) Collingwood superstar produced in 2023, 2024 and 2025. He might win multiple Brownlows over his career, but he needs to start now.
Rising Star: Sid Draper (Adelaide). Last year’s top draft picks, including Willem Duursma, will be in the mix but look down the list of prospects for this year’s Rising Star. Draper played 10 games for Adelaide last year as the Crows racked up the wins at will.
Story of the season: The dominance of the Brisbane Lions. One flag was fun. Back-to-back triumphs were to be applauded. But to be in contention for three premierships in a row and potentially play four grand finals on the trot will start to grate on fans.
On the rise: Sydney. Let’s assume it was a dip last year when the Swans had a 12-11 record for the season following their grand final appearance in 2024, when they were belted by the Lions. Sydney’s chart will be on the up.
On the slide: Collingwood. A slide for the Magpies might simply mean finishing the season with 12 or 13 wins instead of the 16 victories they recorded last year. No opposition would fancy confronting Collingwood in the AFL’s new “wildcard weekend” when teams between seventh and 10th fight for survival.
Headline you won’t see: AFL perturbed by northern states’ power as Lions, Suns eye off all-Queensland grand final
Fans’ biggest gripe: The Saturday blackout on free-to-air TV. The pain won’t go away quickly.
An AFL final 10 will mean: If any club, having finished in a spot from seventh to 10th, is good enough to win five finals to claim the premiership, they’ll have earned it, no doubt about it.
Mathew Stokes
Premier: Gold Coast
Brownlow: Noah Anderson. It’s the year of the Gold Coast Suns and Noah will lead them there.
Rising Star: Jagga Smith. One practice game and I’m sold.
Story of the season: Gold Coast become a heavy weight.
On the rise: Carlton. I like the spread of talent across the board and players who will have a team-first mentality.
On the slide: Collingwood. Father Time is undefeated.
Headline you won’t see: There isn’t enough media coverage of the games or players
Fans’ biggest gripe: The game is out of touch with grassroots, but the game is now a business. And it’s bigger than ever.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Nothing. The best teams will still be there in preliminary final week.
New Sydney player Charlie Curnow.Credit: Eddie Jim
Caroline Wilson
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Noah Anderson
Rising Star: Jagga Smith
Story of the season: Two senior coaches will walk away from the job while still in contract. Two more will be forcibly removed.
On the rise: The standard of umpiring now centre bounces are gone
On the slide: Long-term playing and coaching contracts
Headline you won’t see: Luke Beveridge signs a recording deal
Fans’ biggest gripe: Fully ticketed games and the growing cost of pay TV
An AFL final 10 will mean: 1) the AFL will surpass the NRL in broadcast numbers 2) at least one top eight team will miss September 3) AFLW will again struggle to make an early season splash
Andrew Wu
Premier: Brisbane
Brownlow: Nick Daicos (Collingwood) is the best player in the league but if he is to be robbed of another major individual honour it’ll be Sydney whiz Isaac Heeney who takes Charlie home.
Rising Star: Few debuts have been eagerly awaited as that of Jagga Smith (Carlton), and fans will understand why when they see this young dynamo get to work alongside Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps.
Story of the season: The weekly smashing of the AFL over umpiring, fixturing, draft equality and even the price of pies at the footy to heap more pressure on chief executive Andrew Dillon.
On the rise: The resurgence of two-time Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow (Sydney) will make the Swans at the SCG the hottest ticket in town. With their top-end talent, anything short of the top four would be a disappointment.
On the slide: GWS. It may not necessarily be reflected in ladder position but, crunched by injuries to some of their best and most important players, the Giants will find it hard to match their 16 wins last year.
Headline you won’t see: Saints call for loosening of father-son and academy rules
Fans’ biggest gripe: Umpiring. It’s never their team’s fault they lost.
An AFL final 10 will mean: Snide remarks whether wildcard finals should come with an asterisk.
