A high-speed train line between Sydney and Newcastle would boost the nation’s economy by $250 billion over 50 years, according to a business case for the ambitious project which will be heavily scrutinised when released on Tuesday.
The Albanese government will also inject an extra $230 million into the next phase of the mega-project, clearing the way for detailed planning work which will refine the design, approvals process, scope and cost of a high-speed link.
Under its timeline, the two-year development phase will allow construction of the high-speed rail line to start in 2028 – the year of the next federal election – if final investment approval is granted.
The business case will lay out plans for a staged construction of the line which, if approved, could result in high-speed trains running between Newcastle and the Central Coast within 12 years, followed by those to the Sydney CBD by 2039, and Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport by 2042.
The cost of building the line between Newcastle and Western Sydney Airport via central Sydney is estimated at up to $90 billion.
The plans comprise stations at Broadmeadow in Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, the Central Coast, the Sydney CBD, Parramatta and the new international airport, which will open to passenger flights at the end of October.
As part of the development phase, potential public and private financing options will be examined, which the federal government will use to make a final investment decision on whether to build the Sydney-Newcastle line.
It is being touted as the first stage of a 1800-kilometre high-speed train line spanning the country’s east coast between Brisbane and Melbourne via Canberra. Despite posing major engineering challenges, the Newcastle-Sydney section has been justified as the priority based on housing and employment benefits.
The business case estimates a high-speed line between Sydney and Newcastle will boost the national economy by $250 billion over the next half-century and create more than 99,000 jobs.
Federal Transport Minister Catherine King said the development phase would lay the foundations for delivery of a high-speed train line between Newcastle and Sydney, ensuring that the rail corridor was secured and detailed planning was undertaken before building started.
“Carefully planned, costed and detailed preparation takes time, but it means when construction starts, it is built to last,” she said.
The latest cash injection boosts federal spending on the development phase to $660 million.
A string of proposals for high-speed rail across the east coast have been put forward since the early 1980s, but all failed to survive a full cost-benefit analysis.
Governments of all political persuasions have examined high-speed rail before baulking at its cost. The latest plan, which would be the single largest infrastructure project in Australian history, is the closest high-speed rail has come to construction.
The main benefits from a Sydney-Newcastle line spruiked by the High Speed Rail Authority are in housing supply, followed by reduced journey times between key locations. It estimates the project would spur an extra 46,000 households due to improved transport links.
While supportive of the project progressing to the development phase, Infrastructure Australia has warned in an evaluation of the business case that it has “low confidence at this time” that the forecast housing benefits will be realised.
It has also cited analysis by the federal rail agency showing the benefits of a Newcastle-Sydney line would outweigh its costs only under low-cost and high-benefit scenarios, and including both land use and wider economic spin-offs.
Trains would run at up to 320km/h, reducing the current 2½-hour travel time between Newcastle and Sydney to about an hour. Each train, the authority has argued, could be up to 200 metres long and carry 520 passengers.
The federal government is likely to pick up almost the entire bill for the project. Proponents argue that the huge cost will be offset by development opportunities, particularly in Newcastle, which offers much cheaper housing and land than Sydney.
NSW Premier Chris Minns has repeatedly shown an unwillingness to commit state funding to the project but has said his government would be willing to fast-track planning for a high-speed rail line.
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