Hail, strong winds headed for city as catastrophic fire danger hits NSW Central West

The BoM said the unsettled weather was caused by two troughs – one affecting Victoria and southern NSW that was pushing hot, dry air to the north, and one in the north-west of the state that was drawing down humid air and creating thunderstorms.

Between the two weather systems was a band through Central NSW where hot, dry conditions and winds were creating extreme to catastrophic fire danger.

This follows a hot, dry spring. In October, temperatures were above to very much above average across the state, while the rainfall of 19.9 millimetres was 59 per cent below the 1961-1990 average.

The forecast for a wet spring was turned on its head after a freak heat wave above Antarctica – a “sudden stratospheric warming episode” – brought drier conditions.

University of NSW Climate Change Research Centre senior lecturer Dr Martin Jucker said stratospheric warming events could have lingering effects at ground level, but this would have passed by now.

The BoM is forecasting a hotter, drier summer, despite acknowledging emerging La Nina-like conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States has declared the El Nino-La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in La Nina, the climate driver associated with cooler, wetter weather in Australia. BoM is yet to declare it, but says it is likely.

Jucker said there were some differences in the way NOAA and BoM defined ENSO, but there was not a fundamental difference between being close to La Nina versus actually being called.

If it ended up being a hot, dry La Nina summer, it would be the “flip side” of the wet El Nino summer in 2023-24, Jucker said. This was because ENSO only affected the surface, while the climate was also affected by other factors such as changes in the stratosphere.

Jucker said the “crazy weather” was consistent with climate change.

“We’ve always said it – if we get more energy into the climate system, it will be more turbulent and more back and forth between extremes,” Jucker said.

Rural Fire Service deputy commissioner Ben Millington said the grass grew tall during the wet winter in the central and western parts of the state then dried out over the recent hot, dry weather.

“What we are really concerned about is any new ignitions today,” Millington said on Wednesday morning. “Any new fires under these conditions will be very difficult to contain and may threaten communities.”

While much of the state was in the second-highest fire danger rating – extreme – the Central West local government areas of Bland, Temora, Laughlin, Dubbo, Narromine, Forbes, Parkes and Weddin were in the highest – catastrophic.

The RFS advised farmers in the Dubbo, Narromine and Wellington areas to regularly stop harvesting this week and check weather conditions against advice in the Grain Harvesting Guide, to avoid sparks from harvesting machinery starting fires in hot, windy conditions.

Grass fires are typically smaller than bushfires but move extremely quickly and threaten homes.