China to hold live-fire drills near Taiwan after US arms deal
The latest drills come just two months into the one-year truce that China and the US reached in their trade dispute.
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Associate Professor Dylan Loh, of Nanyang Technological University, said the exercises were unlikely to disrupt the agreement and the PLA would probably refrain from any move that could spark a response from the US.
“I think they will want to hit the Goldilocks zone of inflicting pain and demonstrating resolve but not being seen as disproportionate such that it may piss off the US,” he said.
“A missile flying over the island would certainly fall under the escalation that could invite tit-for-tat,” Loh said. In 2022, China sent missiles directly over the main island of Taiwan in response to then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Taipei.
William Yang, senior analyst for North East Asia at the International Crisis Group, said that the areas the Chinese military marked for the exercises were bigger than in the past, “suggesting that China is trying to demonstrate progress in its military’s capabilities to impose control over larger areas around Taiwan in a potential invasion”.
‘Egregious in Nature’
An expert with China’s Academy of Military Sciences said in a video on social media that the PLA was holding the drills now because “collusion between the US and Taiwan has become frequent and egregious in nature”.
Fu Zhengnan pointed to the size of the latest arms package and what he said was a shift from defensive to offensive weaponry.
Fu was likely referring to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. Those weapons, which Ukraine has used effectively in its fight against Russia, can strike well into China’s south-eastern coast. Taiwan first got them last year and started testing them in May 2025.
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Beijing has stepped up military intimidation of the democracy of 23 million people since Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be brought under its control, by force if necessary – a stance Taipei steadfastly rejects.
The US is Taiwan’s main military backer and is required by its law to supply the democracy with the weapons to defend itself.
Bloomberg, AP
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