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A remarkable 39 per cent of de Minaur’s serves were unreturned – which dwarfed the powerful Bublik’s own rate – and he committed a frugal 10 unforced errors compared to 19 winners in an elite display.
He also sent down more unreturned serves than Tiafoe in the previous round. The serve is the part of de Minaur’s arsenal that is critiqued more than any other, but it has been a weapon in this latest Melbourne Park run.
Bublik’s downfall started from the time de Minaur wrestled back the baseline war in the 10th game of the opening set.
A key part of that was de Minaur hurting the Kazakh with some quality deep returns that ensured he could finally control some points, after Bublik did a good job to that stage of pushing the Australian star deeper in the court than he likes.
Facing double-break point, a double fault sealed Bublik’s first-set fate – and the unravelling from there was as quick as it was stunning.
World No.10 Bublik landed 81 per cent of his first serves in the second set and 70 per cent in the third, numbers that would usually make him difficult to beat, yet somehow he won only 18 of those points during that period, which he bemoaned afterwards.
Alex de Minaur, right, of Australia is congratulated by Alexander Bublik, left, of Kazakhstan in following fourth round match.Credit: AP
“The scoreline is saying how tough it is [to play de Minaur] because I think I served well,” Bublik said.
“I mean, especially second and third sets, I served over 70 per cent and I won [a low number of those] points. It was all one-sided, unfortunately. It’s not what I wanted. It’s not what I was preparing for, but that’s tennis.”
Bublik audibly complained about the court speed during the clash then doubled down post-match, after playing on the faster Margaret Court Arena surface for most of the tournament. But he did concede that it was his fault that he did not adjust to the conditions.
Wherever you looked, de Minaur had the in-form Bublik covered. Those all-important 0-4-shot rallies? De Minaur won those points 57-35, and was also on top whenever the exchanges went longer.
Bublik’s impatience cost him repeatedly as, like Tiafoe before him, he regularly struggled to find a way through de Minaur, and resorted to trying to hit bigger and more aggressively, which too often resulted in him misfiring.
He barely hit more winners than de Minaur, but committed more than triple as many unforced errors. It was a recipe for disaster.
The only hope for Bublik when he went two sets down was whether there were any mental scars left for de Minaur after his collapse from the same position in Paris last year. But this is a new-and-improved de Minaur, who raced to a 4-0 third-set lead before steaming to the finish line.
Alcaraz, who is missing only an Australian Open title to complete his grand slam collection, has not dropped a set at Melbourne Park in reaching his third quarter-final in the country.
He has never gone beyond this stage at the Open, but boasts a 5-0 head-to-head record with de Minaur, although each of the matches has been competitive. It is their first clash at a major.
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“I’ve got one of the toughest tasks ahead, so I’m going to make sure that I bring everything I’ve got,” de Minaur said.
“It does help that I’m feeling quite fresh, and it’s going to be a physical battle. There are many things that Carlos does incredibly well on a tennis court, and one of those is making the rallies quite physical.
“I’m looking forward to what’s to come. Hopefully, it’s going to be a battle, and it’s going to be a long one.”
