Why Your Next Long-Haul Layover May Be in Seoul, Not Dubai

Flying across the world? You’re now more likely to stop in Asia than you would have been before war broke out in the Middle East.

Major Persian Gulf airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad dominated intercontinental travel before the war, accounting for roughly a third of the traffic between Europe and Asia and about one in two travelers between Europe and Australia.

But transfer traffic in the Middle East on routes connecting Asia to Europe has nearly halved since the war started in late February, according to one estimate.

And for now at least, travelers between Asia, Australia and Europe who once flew through the Middle East are taking nonstop flights or transiting through airports like Hong Kong, Istanbul, Seoul and Singapore. Airlines have added flights to handle this new demand.

Here’s how the war is reshuffling international flights, and why this is an opportunity for Asian airports and airlines.

How we got here

The major Middle Eastern hubs — Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and Doha in Qatar — sit at the intersection of Africa, Asia and Europe, a few hours by air from most of the world’s population. They grew rapidly over the past two decades with hefty government backing.

Last year, 16 percent of the world’s 417 million connecting passengers transited through the region, according to the International Air Transport Association, the airline trade group.

But after the war started, the drop was stark. Middle Eastern transfer traffic on routes connecting Asia and Western Europe fell by 47 percent in April year-over-year, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy, an advisory firm headquartered in New York.

As the conflict dragged on and airports in Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi were targeted by airstrikes, many flights were suspended or rerouted. Some governments urged passengers not to travel through the region.

“People have been looking for alternative routes,” said John Strickland, an aviation consultant in London. “Asian hubs have been natural alternatives.”

Major Asian airports handled massive traffic before the war and had the infrastructure to process more flights and travelers.

IATA reported in May that bookings for June to September had fallen across all regions except the Asia-Pacific, where they grew 33 percent year-over-year. It also said in July that bookings to the region had expanded the most at the height of the war disruptions.

Airports

This has been good for Asian hubs.

Incheon International Airport, which serves greater Seoul, said this month that its transfer traffic in the first half of 2026 had increased by 18 percent year-over-year, and by 63 percent on European routes. That helped make it the busiest international airport in the world in that period, according to preliminary internal data from the trade group Airports Council International that Incheon provided to The New York Times.

Incheon said that it had risen from third place — surpassing Dubai International Airport and London’s Heathrow Airport — because the geopolitical crisis had pushed travelers away from the Gulf hubs.

The data also shows that international passenger traffic at Hong Kong International Airport grew by more than 11 percent in the same period, and nearly 10 percent at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport.

Singapore’s Changi Airport, the connecting point for about one in four passengers traveling between Europe and Australia, said that airlines had added more than 800 flights between Singapore and cities like London, Munich, Paris and Sydney between March and July.

These airports stand to benefit because travelers, whether landing or transiting, pay passenger fees. Each traveler also spends roughly $7.57 on average on airport shopping, dining and other nonaviation expenses that are critical to airports’ financial viability, according to Airports Council International.

Airlines

The disruption has also helped airlines outside the Middle East capture more customers.

A snapshot:

• In April, Cathay Pacific, a Hong Kong airline, said that a 24 percent rise in passengers in March compared with the same month last year was a result of shifting demand created by the “ongoing situation in the Middle East.”

• Singapore Airlines attributed its 7-percent rise in passenger traffic to the rerouting of travel to Europe and the Americas.

Where we go from here

It remains unclear how long this trend will last. As Iran and the United States settle into an uneasy standoff, the threat of a flare-up remains. But the major Middle East airlines have started to rebuild passenger confidence and aggressively reduced prices, and aviation experts said the windfall in Asia is already eroding as a result.

IATA said that bookings to the Middle East had steadily recovered since April.

“You might be tempted to take a risk of flying through the Middle East because the price is so good,” Mr. Goh said.