Andrew Hastie backers have started hitting the phones to rally support for a leadership challenge by the West Australian MP as Opposition Leader Sussan Ley digs in with her allies, determined to get through the crisis sparked by a historic Coalition split.
Hastie has told colleagues in recent days that he is ready to run soon and his backers have also been receiving inbound calls in which the question of leadership is being explicitly discussed, according to half a dozen party sources unwilling to speak publicly.
Events are moving quickly in the Liberal Party, and particularly the Right faction, a day after Nationals leader David Littleproud withdrew from the Coalition. That move has drawn anger from all corners of the Liberals and some in the country party.
Groups of Liberal MPs shifted gears on Friday and began directly discussing plans for a fresh start, even though Ley’s colleagues sympathise with the poor hand she was dealt. The conversations were mostly in the Right faction, which has been split between Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor, but also extended to some MPs who voted for Ley who were now in talks with the Right.
“It’s moving: phone calls are now being made, plans are being finalised, the expectation is it will happen, and pieces of the puzzle are coming together,” one MP said.
No MPs have yet gone on the record to call for a leadership change. Ley’s loyalists are hopeful that the anger towards Littleproud, who effectively challenged the Liberals to topple Ley as a condition of reforming the Coalition, would hold back any move against Ley.
Hastie’s supporters are not clear if they have enough support for a split, but the open talk of a challenge, which risks blowback for the MPs involved, is a sign that one is nearing.
A supporter of Ley said it would be a terrible look to roll Ley after the Liberals galvanised against Littleproud, and predicted Hastie and Taylor would back out of a proposed challenge when parliament resumed in February. “Any challenge in February will be the Littleproud candidate versus the Liberal Party, and so it probably won’t happen because anyone trying to capitalise on this situation will be viewed poorly,” they said.
One frontbencher said it was becoming clear that Hastie, who has received criticism for his stances on immigration and climate change and been accused of aping overseas populists, had more support in the Right than Taylor.
Hastie drew intense anger from his right-wing online base for backing a watered-down version of Labor’s hate crimes, which the far-left and libertarian right all contended would curb free speech. But some Moderate MPs admired Hastie’s ability to compromise in the national interest.
Hastie is backed by a core group including younger backbenchers Ben Small, Garth Hamilton and Henry Pike. Influential frontbenchers Jonno Duniam and Michaelia Cash are also viewed as likely to back Hastie over Taylor.
Taylor did not attend the Bondi massacre-focussed sitting week as he was in Europe on a family holiday, meaning he did not play a leading role in the dramas, prompting MPs to question his level of commitment. His performance as shadow treasurer under Peter Dutton was also criticised by his colleagues.
Taylor is yet to return to Australia and is being pushed internally by right-wingers Tony Pasin and Sarah Henderson.
One senior MP who supports Hastie said events could escalate quickly: “I’m not sure if this even holds until February when we’re back in parliament.”
An MP who received a call from a Hastie backer said the pitch for the Hastie was as follows: “Which MP has demonstrated an ability to cut through? Who can lead generational change?”
A critic of Hastie on the Right said he would merely echo One Nation, boosting the salience of the migration issue on which the Liberals could not outflank Pauline Hanson. Hastie’s brand of conservatism runs the risk of turning off mainstream voters, but those inclined to vote for him hope his forthright style and straight-talking energy could get voters to at least pay attention to the party.
Ley managed to keep her job after a bruising debate on energy policy last year. Similar battles claimed previous leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson.
She has also demonstrated a willingness to stare down dissent and front up to the media when her leadership is under pressure. Her summer of campaigning on a federal royal commission into antisemitism and the Bondi massacre hurt the prime minister in the polls, but the issue blew up in her face after the party split over Bondi laws this week.
Hastie’s backers face the hurdle of needing to avoid the impression that they are toppling Ley to bring back the Coalition with Littleproud’s party.
Ley said on Friday morning that she was confident of staying in the job.
“I have led, and with respect, we’ve had genuine wins with all of the things we’ve done so far,” she said.
“I know that it hasn’t been the summer that the Labor Party wanted because I, as leader, have held them to account, and stood there every day.”
The opposition leader will spend the next few days trying to put together a Liberal-only shadow cabinet, which could promote Jane Hume. If Ley wanted to test Hastie’s loyalty, she could also create a job offer for him to return to the frontbench.
Some senior Liberals were on Friday desperately trying to stitch the Coalition back together after the most successful alliance in Australian politics crumbled this week. MPs were discussing the creation of a more modern Coalition agreement that allowed the parties to have different views.
But Littleproud told this masthead on Friday morning that such conversations did not involve him and would not go anywhere.
“There’s no discussion,” he said. “I don’t think we’re in any hurry to do anything.”
“They need time to work out who they are.”
Littleproud used less aggressive language on Friday than he did on Thursday, and Ley made a point of not attacking Littleproud personally in her media appearances on Friday, perhaps pointing to an unlikely reconciliation.
Many Nationals MPs are dissatisfied with Littleproud, even though no leadership challenge is imminent.
Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack said the parties needed to re-unite. When Labor split in the 1950s, Robert Menzies’ Liberals went on to win seven elections straight.
“We can’t continue separate for weeks or indeed months,” McCormack told this masthead.
“We got back to parliament on February 3 and a lot can happen between now and then.”
Albanese said on Friday that any replacement of Ley would be carrying political baggage.
“Sussan Ley has been undermined – the first woman leader of the Liberal Party – undermined from day one and the alternative leaders are worse,” he said on ABC radio on Friday.
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Paul Sakkal is chief political correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and has won Walkley and Quill awards. Reach him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14Connect via Twitter or email.
