The veteran Nationals MP, who will spend his Christmas break weighing up the prospect of joining One Nation, doesn’t need everyone to like him. He has a net likeability rating of plus 16 per cent with Coalition voters, and a net likeability rating of 22 per cent with One Nation voters.
Overall, 26 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for One Nation if Joyce were to become leader one day compared to 22 per cent of voters who were less likely to back the party if he was in charge, while 53 per cent said it made no difference.
In a warning to Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud, 33 per cent of Coalition voters said they were more likely to vote for One Nation if Joyce was leader, just 19 per cent less likely, and 48 per cent undecided.
These findings could strengthen Joyce’s resolve to quit the Nationals and make his party colleagues nervous about allowing the two-times former leader to exit.
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Hastie, who resigned from shadow cabinet two months ago to hold forth on migration, climate and other conservative flashpoints, has also seen his net likeability rise from plus four in September to plus six in October to plus eight now.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had a net likeability rating of minus one, up 16 percentage points from minus 17 last December, and Ley had a net likeability rating of minus one, sliding down from the plus 11 she scored in July, the first poll after she took over as leader.
Hanson, Joyce and Hastie have tapped a deep well of discontent as Australians struggle with housing costs and power bills, and that the issues the trio talks about – immigration, energy security, cost of living and reviving Australian manufacturing – resonate with voters.
Opponents of Ley will be tempted to use this latest survey to argue the opposition leader has already moved the Liberals too far to the centre or worse, to argue that she is too blancmange and that voters have stopped listening.
Supporters of Ley will counter that there are many, many more votes to be won back in the political centre, including the swag of seats taken by teals, and Ley must be given time and clear air to cut through in the cities.
But if the Nationals survivor does finally decide to join One Nation, it looks like both he, Hanson and the party she helped found two decades ago would all benefit.
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